Volkswagen and software: probably not.

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This news item will age not as well as the milk you have in your fridge right now. Volkswagen can not make software. They can bend metal wonderfully – and much better than Tesla. Looking inside of the trunk of the Model S reminded me of Fiats made in Romania from 30 years ago. When they were new.

But VW simply does not have the culture to create software. They have super smart engineers. But an engineering culture that is not compatible with software.

The bluetooth connection in our Golf VII is a bit sketchy. I was asking the dealer if there would be an update. There was a day long download, but it turns out it was just for the maps. Which are still dismal. I asked in Wolfsburg. They wrote me back that the car and software left the factory perfectly adjusted to each other. And that VW would not change that. They were serious.

All the while Tesla gathers actual data from people driving on their current autopilot.

For people that bought the ID.3 before December 2020 updating your software means that you have to bring the car to the dealer. Continental is supposed building a High Speed Computer to help VW with over the air updates in the future. High speed seems to be needed. Currently the in shop update times are:

ID.Software2.0 only, 6-7 hours
ID.Software2.0 & 2.1 at the same time, 7-9 hours
ID.Software2.1 only, 1-2 hours

Q1 2021 is when VW wants to start with over the air updates. In the meantime Tesla is updating their software on an hourly basis. If you are in a culture in software where you push little things all the time you never run into the big “Version 2” issues. Small things go out. Some even broken, but you know quickly when, and you get them cleared out before they cause much damage. There is never a “Version 2.0” update for FB, google or AWS. There are lots of minor features, things etc. being released and monitored. VW makes software like they make cars: They ‘build’ a release and push it out. Every couple of months it seems. Having 5000 people working on VW.OS is not got gonna fix that. I doubt many of those 5000 people code. Most of them write “Pflichtenheft” and discuss how to implement them.

The Fourth Estate and its 30 pieces of silver

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Now that the orange idiot no longer has its megaphone it is OK again to point out when ‘the media’ aka MSM f*cks up:

The crazy thing is that there was no silver push on reddit. And yet both NYT and WSJ plug that story / narrative on their front pages. As if it would be the natural next chapter of the GME / WSB / RH events.

Takeaway: Look at the front page. Just don’t believe it. It is informative in what kind of stories get pushed. And then, most importantly, don’t fall for the Gell-Mann Amnesia.

will it end in tears as expected?

economy internet technology

There are layers to what happens now with stocks and stories around it. I think it will end in tears. Trading options on the phone is a reality. And weird. Other, by now established, retail traders like TD or Schwab have you go through some lengthy process before you can dabble in options. It feels like Robinhood let you do it without much fuzz. Fun game. As long as it lasts. RH is said to have $20B AUM. Almost as big as Citadel with its $35B AUM. Citadel is also a “Market Maker”. An entity that connects buyers and sellers of stocks. Something Bernie Madoff did before he went off the deep end. Bernie also invented “Payment for oder flow“. A scheme were the market maker pays for a third party to bring clients in. Robinhood makes most of its money from these kind of deals. It routes many of the trades that its 12 million customers make via Citadel. Bernie is busy right now, he can not do it, even if it he wanted to.

The plot thickens when we look at Citadell backing Melvin with $2.75B earlier this week. Melvin had shorted, among other actors, ailing games retailer chain GME. A short is a promise to provide a given stock at a given date for a given price. A great contract if you can get the stock cheaper than that. A really shitty contract if you can not. While the money you can make is limited by the price will be. The money you can loose has no such limit. If I would have shorted Tesla when I though their pricing was just outrageous, I would have lost 4 dollars for each dollar that I would have made that bet (short trade) with. I did not. Melvin did short GME though. And the price for GMA has gone up. Like allot.

What happened next? Robinhood, that company that makes most of its money with Citadel, stopped allowing people to buy GME stock on their platform. Basically manipulating the market. Preventing that the people that congregate on CondeNasts reddit in the WallStreetBets section from keeping the price up, or raising it even further.

It is pretty naive that people raise their pitch forks when in fact they only hold life sized paper cut outs of said farming devices in their angrily shaking fists. They seem to ignore the fact, that it is the people on the other side of the moat that gave them to them as a trade for the real thing and some confetti animation.

So, yes, it will end in tears. The wsb / GME story. As well as Robinhood, as well as the concept that all that money from your bail out check and that you saved by not going to Bali and that you put ‘into the market’ will get you instant riches.

In the end of every bubble the audience needs to get broadened. One needs more people to join the party. To keep the thing going for just one more round. In that it is not unlike the phase of a loosing war: All sorts of people get recruited to ‘turn things around’. The DJIA touched 31K. Where do you think would it go from here? The concept of asset price inflation can only carry you so far.

But I have been betting on a falling market since it was overpriced at 11,500. The first time. More than 20 years ago.

Newspaper are not about what is new.

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The New York Times wrote on page 46 in the column “The News of Radio” on July 1st 1948 about 9 topics. Most about shows that get air, or that WNEW will transmit reports of traffic conditions. The last topic reads as follows:

A device called a transistor, which has several applications in radio where a vacuum tube ordinarily is employed was demonstrated for the first time yesterday at Bell Telefone Laboratories, 463 West Street, where it was invented.

The device was demonstrated in a radio receiver, which contained none of the conventional tubes. It also was shown in a telephone system and in a television unit controlled by a receiver on a lower floor. In each case the transistor was employed as an amplified, although it is claimed that it also can be used as an oscillator in that it will create and send radio waves.

In the shape of a small metal cylinder about a half-inch long, the transistor contains no vacuum, grid, pleas or glass envelope to keep the air away. Its action is instantaneous, there being no warm-up delay since no heat is developed as in a vacuum tube.

The working parts of the device consist solely of the two fine wires that run down a to a pinhead of solid semi-conductive material soldered to a metal base. The substance of the metal base amplifies the current to it by one wire and the other wire carries away the amplified current.

NY Times July 1st 1948, Page 46

The author did in my opinion actually rather well in describing this novel thing: The essential term semi-conductor shows up for instance. Bell Labs was a big deal back then. They knew what they had with this thing they came up with. They also had the capability to create a good presentation. While it would take a couple of years for this thing to impact the world, it was the one key invention that would kick off a change that to this days influences the world in the greatest way. The room you sit in has more transistors in it than there are humans on the planet. Apples A14 chip for instance puts 134 million transistors on square will a mm length.

That the NY Times could have not seen coming. Not many people could have. And of those that could in 1948 many actually worked at Bell Labs. Must have been weird to know about the future while the world was blissfully ignorant.

For a while ‘a Transistor’ was also the name for a cheap, small, often portable radio. Like the Regency TR-1.

In that respect the NY Times was doing OK to write about the topic under “Radio”. But they certainly didn’t see it coming. Not many people did. Easy to feel superior, now that we have hindsight. But overcoming this notion is worth it: What else do we not get, see, notice? Why did the people in 1948 did not realize what would be possible? Probably since people are stuck in the world they know. They read what happens through their minds. They world view. They can not imagine that something can change everything.

Dann kann ja nichts mehr schiefgehen.

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Die meisten Menschen haben keine Wahl. Sie werden in einem Land geboren, und dann sind sie eben Iraker, Chinesen oder eben auch Deutsche. Es kam bei mir anders. Geboren wurde ich auch nur als Deutscher. Aber dann bekam ich auch die Amerikanische Staatsbürgerschaft. Damals, als DJT noch um Fernsehquoten buhlte, und mir eher als unfreiwillige und absurd peinliche Playboy Persiflage bekannt war.

Das Covid global wird war mir am 15. Januar klar als die Chinesen 23 Millionen einsperrten. Das macht man nicht mal einfach so.

Also musste ich mich entscheiden ob ich in Deutschland oder in den USA für die Epidemie bleibe. Ich habe Deutschland gewählt. Das war ein Fehler.

Im Frühjahr sah ja noch alles toll aus. Im Herbst dann nicht mehr. Weder Schulen noch Gesundheitsämter waren auf ansteigende Fallzahlen besonders vorbeireitet.

Ende 2020 schaltet die Bundesregierung eine Werbekampagne:

Deutschland krempelt die Ärme hoch

Einen Monat später sage ich: Jens, mein Arm wird kalt.

Es gibt keinen Impfstoff. Populisten haben sich im Juli eingedeckt. In der EU hat man noch viele Monate gebraucht zu verstehen warum RNA Impfstoffe funktionieren. Man hat uns damals immer erzählt das man schon für die Produktion bezahle damit es dann nach der Zulassung so richtig losgehen würde.

Dann, den ganzen Dezember hiess es man würde in der EU ja auch eine “richtige” Zulassung machen. Die hat man nun.

Was man nicht hat ist genug Impfstoff.

In England, den USA und Israel hat man genug Impfstoff.

Das liegt nicht an mir. Das liegt an den Politikern. Und die versuchen mit all ihrer Kunst von dieser einfachen Tatsache abzulenken. Besser währe es wenn sie versuchen würden den Tatbestand zu verändern. Dass sehe ich leider nicht. Mit AstraZeneca herumstreiten führt nicht wirklich weiter.

Es gibt genug Impfstoff Bedarf in der Welt. Die EU ist nur ein Einkäufer von vielen. Und im Moment nicht gerade der beliebteste.

Und dabei dachte man damals, dass die Gorch Fock Frau von der Leyens Tiefpunkt sei. Leider nicht.

Niedersachsen Impfportal

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Funktioniert hat es nie. Es gab dann ja auch mal eine SMS, aber die hat die Seite dann nie akzeptiert. Wen wundert es, irgend eine Webfirma scheint das ganze zusammen gebastelt zu haben. Die haben dann noch nicht mal die Daten vom Projekt rausgenommen aus dem sie schnell mal was kopiert haben:

                ADMIN: "ADMIN",
                DISPONENT: "DISPONENT",
                FMIS: "FMIS",
                TERMINAL: "TERMINAL",
                OEM: "OEM",
                NORDZUCKER: "NORDZUCKER"

Das ganze ist schon eine ziemliche Bauernfängerei. Im Code stehen C19 Referenzen neben Agrilog calls:

const A = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_VEHICLE"]
},
I = function() {
return ["PERM.C19_ADMIN"]
},
L = function() {
return ["PERM.C19_SCHEDULING_TOOL"]
},
R = function() {
return ["PERM.C19_MASTERDATA_VACC_CENTER"]
},
P = function() {
return ["PERM.C19_VACC_CEMTER_RECEPTION"]
},
j = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_ORDER", "PERM.ORDER_SSO"]
},
N = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_CAMPAIGN"]
},
F = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_SEQUENCE"]
},
B = function() {
return ["PERM.AGRILOG_HARVESTING"]
},
V = function() {
return ["PERM.AGRILOG_PILECARING"]
},
H = function() {
return ["PERM.AGRILOG_LOADING"]
},
z = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_RESOURCE"]
},
U = function() {
return ["PERM.AGRILOG_HARVESTING", "PERM.AGRILOG_PILECARING", "PERM.AGRILOG_LOADING", "PERM.AGRILOG_LOADING"]
},
W = function() {
return ["PERM.REPORTING"]
},
Y = function() {
return ["PERM.REPORT_MEASUREFORM"]
},
K = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_WORKTIME"]
},
G = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_INVOICE"]
},
q = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_DELIVERYNOTES"]
},
X = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_FIELD", "PERM.FARMER_SSO"]
},
$ = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_EMPLOYEE"]
},
J = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_LAYER"]
},
Z = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_ORDER"]
},
Q = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_DELIVERYADDRESSES"]
},
tt = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_MACHINE"]
},
et = function() {
return ["PERM.GSC"]
},
nt = function() {
return ["PERM.GRIMME"]
},
it = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_FLEET"]
},
st = function() {
return ["PERM.AGRILOG_HARVESTING", "PERM.AGRILOG_PILECARING", "PERM.AGRILOG_LOADING"]
},
rt = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_CUSTOMER"]
},
at = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_CONNECT"]
},
ot = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_GEOFENCE"]
},
lt = function() {
return ["PERM.GEOFENCE"]
},
ct = function() {
return ["PERM.SZTECHNICAL"]
},
ut = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_MYDATA"]
},
ht = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_USER"]
},
dt = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_MEASUREFORM"]
},
pt = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_MEASURE"]
},
mt = function() {
return ["PERM.MASTERDATA_KEYWORD"]
},
ft = function() {
return ["PERM.WEATHER"]
},
bt = function() {
return ["PERM.C19_ADMIN", "PERM.C19_SCHEDULING_TOOL", "PERM.C19_MASTERDATA_VACC_CENTER", "PERM.C19_VACC_CEMTER_RECEPTION"]
};

Rübenlogistik oder Impfzentrum – Ist eben alles eins in Niedersachsen.

Peinlich, aber eigentlich noch schlimmer …

BALLOT OATH

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It seems that the BALLOT OATH sheet that you might find with your mail by vote Ballot is one that you only need to fill out if you indeed FAX your ballot.

Better check the rest of the Internet to figure out if this is true.

Writing it here, since the paper that says BALLOT OATH and LARC20210001 INST MILOS E starts the explanation with:

In choosing to return your ballot by fax or mail, …

The “or mail” made me believe that even if I mail in the bail I would need to fill it out. While the instructions that came with the ballot did not mention that form to be included.

But, as I said: better check the rest of the Internet for better and more substantial information on this. Why the form is non-conclusive? Well. Lawyers. Not enough of them… [joke].

Apple will buy Headspace

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That Apple eventually will buy Headspace is pretty much a given. Of course I have no insight knowledge. But those two line will converge is pretty clear: Headspace is in the business of being good to its users. They benefit from their users making progress. Real progress. Not some fake Instagram like jolt to some addictive pattern. They seem to invest into content. Branching out into different areas. Sure you can easily obtain background noises to create an ambiance that matches your state by other means. But if you have an app that you trust, then they are your goto destination. We carry computers with us all the time. They do not serve us as well as they could. They know how we move, sleep, eat (indirectly, but easy enough) etc etc. There is tremendously potential in utilizing these devices for our good. Not just to drain usage (eyeball hours) out of us.

For every dollar Mr Zuckerberg makes he creates human suffering. Google is the same. Yes both companies also provide services to their users that have a positive effect. But in terms of net sum human impact FB is horrible. Google has search, which provides tremendous value. And it keeps getting better. But they also steer the Internet in general not into the best direction: Adwords and Youtube incentivizes content creates alike in not the best of all directions. Millions of people get paid by google to create content that is ‘juicy’. Well to consume so that eyeballs no longer go to Insta or Tiktok or whatever grows in those nucks and crannies below the floorboards of decency. A true race to the bottom. Grinding up the minds of generations of people, for the mere objective of maintaining your shareholder value. Nothing Sergey and Larry set out to do. But in the end that is what became their business.

Apple never was able to swim in that pond. Whether by intention, or just because they missed the boat: They can not harvest money out of the users like others can. So they are stuck. Stuck in a good place. They can care about the data of their users. They sell phones. If people look less at them but be happier for it it is actually good for them.

For a couple of days my Samsung A10 nudged me into enabling “find my device”. Nudge is an understatement. It was highly annoying, since I could not find a clear way to disable the constant and random reminders. I am otherwise fine with my luddite device. Having 2 SIM cards for instance saves me schlepping 2 Apple devices around. But those couple of days of messages make me hate Samsung. Enough that my blood, although no longer boiling, raises its perceived temperature coming to think about this. My solution would have been to buy Apple phones. They are not perfect. But they will respect me. Much like if I am booking a 5 star hotel I know that it will be quite quiet at the pool. If am at the Tropicana in Palm Springs I don’t have that expectation.

Apple can not really make content. And if they do, it is really really expensive. They know that. Headspace can make content. And they know how to fill that niche. Disney can not produce a meditation tape. They could, but it would be expensive too. And not that good. And they lack the mindset of Headspace: One that looks around and tries to look for things that will be good for people.

There is a H U G E market there. Not squeezing people like lemons, but rather help them to be good. Good and Happy people are a value that is M A S S I V E if you would try to express it in money.

Headspace + Apple makes allot sense in that view.

More than 14 billion feet …

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… touch Earth each day. Only eight of them touched another planet as well: Buzz Aldrin, David Scott, Charles Duke and Harrison Schmitt are still among us.

that Vermeer

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Zooming into the right eye reveals that ‘restaurations’ took place at some point:

Still a nice picture. I also like Jenny Boot‘s version: