The limit of our imagination

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We might think that we can imagine stuff that is not outlandish enough. Looking at what kind of things people come up with I think that that is not the real limit. The real limit is that we fail to understand how little of the total possibilities we covered with our thoughts. As an individual as much as a species.

2020 being half done it is fair to say that there could be anybody who could claim that it was going according to his plans so far. And it wont return to normal by the time its over either.

The realization of not having the faintest clue about the future elicits fear in most people. Actually it should not: The stuff we can’t imagine is not inherently bad, neither is it is inherently good. As much as good and stuff happened in the past it will in the future. Just that what will happen does not need to be the same than that that already did.

worry potential

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As 2020 approaches its middle point there is ample reason to worry: China is looking at Taiwan, the US has 3 carriers in the area. India and China deploy more hardware in Ladakh. Russia intercepts US planes over the black see and posts videos off it on the Internet.

The backdrop of the global economic implosion that could happen any minute in the next six month, together with an ongoing Covid-19 situation that only a few countries have under control, and the fact that the former global super power is being run by an imbecile and is as usual pre-occupied with its own internal perceived and real problems is not one that I would long for. Would I have a choice …

smile amazon dot com

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If you switch to smile.amazon.com your purchases generate 0.5% for the charity of your choice. As an extra benefit you have an idea just how much you spent with the largest trader in the world. Just multiply your donation amount by 200. The donation amount is easily accessible from the top left of the main page.

I knew my numbers would be high, just how high was shocking.

Then I calculated how much AMZN stock I would have needed to buy when I signed up so that I could have paid for all of it today. That number was ridiculous small.

World Peace

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“World Peache” was the name of the first ship that sailed under the Liberian flag in 1947 after the foundation of its open ship registry. Funny that Liberia with its flag started the trend to have a different flag than that of the actual ownership.

Must have been a strange moment for sailors on the World Peace to see the numbers of stars on their flag to drop from 48 to 1.

Speaking of numbers of stars: Those days when the administration publicly floated the idea to add another one by buying Greenland already feel as eery as one fine day the whole period will look in memory.

To deChina your economy in 2020 is not easy

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This well written article about Europes efforts to push back the ever growing importance of China in its economy makes some great points.

Aside from the price advantage we will probably see more and more another reason for Made in China becoming even more predominant:

More and more things can only be made in China: This youtube video about cellphone battery production might be elucidating in this respect. The company shown is on the smaller side. Nevertheless its automatic integration is close to perfect. It takes years to develop and build the machinery to make batteries on this quality level. There are many similar assembly lines in the world. They all compete with each other. In order to remain profitable they have to be optimized on a constant basis. Year after year.

Many battery production lines are in China. Probably none are in the US or Europe. To start making batteries now in a different country will be very hard. It is not that we could just steal the plans from the Chinese.

Why is the second jobsless Apple not like the first?

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It is very interesting to me to look at where I was really wrong. I should say: where I was wrong and can remember. or where I have evidence for it. Like everybody else I constantly edit my own history so that I look good in it. All the blunders (some cringes aside, and but that is yet another topic) and dead ends simply don’t show in the history I create of my past.

Anyway: Steve had pancreatic cancer. He would not survive, that much I was certain. He wasn’t. Good for him. I never worked directly for Apple. But close enough in a non consumer capacity that I could observe his influence first hand. AAPL of the early 2000s was a company that had one final and guiding beacon in all decisions and – most importantly – on all levels: What would Steve do. He was known to be able to care for everything. Stacking some boxes on some shelf: As improbable as it is, it could be that the door would open, and he would notice in a heartbeat that the way you did that was not the best possible way. Should that be the case you would be gone. It is probably corpo-lore but the tale goes that an unsuspecting employee was randomly joined by him for an elevator ride, to be confronted with the question: “What have you done today for Apple?” The story goes that the answer was not up to Steves liking and the passenger was no longer employed by Apple Inc when the door opened and Steve went his ways.

So, when I was thinking about Apple without Steve I thought it would not go well. Yes, there hasn’t been another iMac, iPod or iPhone, but the company is bigger and wealthier than it ever was. They started – for crying out loud – to make their own chips and will put them in everything they make. Chips are expensive. This is an astute move on Apples part. One that requires foresight and ample well directed resources. Apple is smart that it works with its strength. Tim Cook understands what he is good at. And what he is not. He never tried to show the world that he also can invent like Steve. A mistake most people would do, and that would easily ruined the company. Johny Ive kind of inherited the ‘spiritual leader’ function of Jobs. But he – luckily – never ran with it. If he ever tried to stage a coup to grab the helm of Apple to ‘to bring it back to greatness’ then he failed so quietly that nothing got to the outside. Nobody can hear you scream in Cupertino.

So what is the cause of my mistake? Today I think it was the fact that I looked at all the pieces on the board, but did not take into account that the parts that I see are only part of the playing field. Tim Cook being good at his job, and his job being not of the nature of that of the previous CEO was not something I could take into account. I also underestimated how much the Apple-Way of the 2000s – certainly epitomized by the Jobs-halo – would be viable without him being around in the flesh. And a big, well run, corporation has some life in it. Specially when it is in a field that is still booming. Yes, Apple missed the cloud. The only real hit they have on their hands are head phones.

Mid 2020 AAPL is at 360, 2011 it was at 50. So, yes, I was wrong. Since I thought 50 was way to high since a second jobsless Apple would be the same disaster than the first one. But Tim Cook is no John Sculley.

bias towards China

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Tiktok gets banned in India. Since the app has a bias to China. No s*t. Just that in other countries people have not understood how TikTok can influence the people that it uses. Yes, TikTok uses people, not the other way around.

Unrelatd: Should India and China would go to war, then suddenly more than 35% of the worlds population would be at war.

“The Honor Code”

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I enjoyed listening to Kwame Anthony Appiah’s “The Honor Code” from 2010. The book looks at human history with an interesting perspective. Emotions and culture shape our value systems. Illustrating via the four examples of change in respect to duels, foot binding, slavery and honor killings Appiah shows how mankind can indeed make progress. In 2020 it is worth remembering that we are on a path of progress. That many of the shortcomings of our ancestors don’t plague our behavior anymore. And it gives hope that we pick up on that kind of path in the future again.

emotional BBC

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It truly sucks that poor people should have money troubles because a German company cooked their books, and nobody noticed 2 missing billions for 8 years. But the BBC seems to write more and more emotional lately it seems. In the past they seem to have given things a clearer perspective. Not sure what causes this. But the marketplace they try to enter is rather crowded already. I would prefer it, if they would continue to stay away from the clickbait biz.

Fleischpreis & Tierwohl

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Das Fleisch ist billig.

Den Tieren geht es schlecht.

Schlachthofmitarbeiter haben Corona.

Als Reaktion auf die aktuellen Nachrichten werden diese drei Aspekte unserer Nahrungskette aufs eigenartigste in der Forderung das Fleisch teurer zu machen verwurstet. Logisch ist das nicht. Aber die öffentliche Meinung geht, ganz und gar berechen- und nachvollziehbar, in diese Richtung.

Natürlich steht ausser Frage, dass grosse Teile unseres Wohlstandes zur Zeit im Kontext der Ausbeutung erzeugt werden. Das gleiche Prinzip herrscht hier im Bezug auf Mitmenschen, Umwelt, Klima oder Nutztiere. Es ist aber absolut möglich, den Schadanteil unseres Verhaltens erheblich zu verringern, ohne dabei dass wir dabei in unserer Lebensqualität wirkliche Abstriche machen zu müssten. In der Vergangenheit haben Menschen wiederholt solche Entwicklungs- und Fortschritte erfolgreich vollzogen: Sklaverei, Einsatz von Tiermuskel, Verbrennen von Holz gehören fast überall der Vergangenheit an.


Das werden wir auch im Hinblick darauf tun wie wir Nutztiere behandeln. Dumpingpreise sind dabei aber nicht wirklich das Problem. An dieser Schraube drehen zu wollen, bedeutet den Karren vor das Pferd zu spannen. Wenn Fleisch teurer wird heisst das nicht automatisch das Schweine dann auch mehr Platz haben. Die Lebensumstände von Nutztieren müssen auf der Basis von aktuellen wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnissen und im gesellschaftlichen Konsens definiert werden. Wenn eine langfristige und verlässliche Anpassung kommuniziert wird, dann ist der wirtschaftliche Aspekt plötzlich zweitrangig. Ein Umstand an dich Menschen im Herstellungsproze anpassen. Sollte zB festgelegt werden wieviele m2 jedes Schwein zu Lebzeiten 2021, 2026 und 2031 gehabt muss, damit man sein Fleisch in Deutschland verzehren darf, dann passt sich der Markt daran automatisch an. Ob das Schnitzel dann einen anderen Preis bekommt ist eine gänzlich andere Frage. Man wundert sich, wie klug Menschen sein können wenn man ihnen durch realitätsbasierte Vorgaben einen klaren Rahmen steckt.

Wenn das so einfach ist, warum ist der Haß aufs Billigfleisch im Sommer 2020 so ein großes Thema? Emotionen. Dir Corona Infektionen bei Tönnes und Co haben die Arbeitsumstände der Arbeiter in Schlachthöfen ins Bewusstsein der Menschen gebracht. Ekel und Scham sind da ganz natürliche Reaktionen. Unmenschen leben nicht in Deutschland (oder irgendeinem anderen Land). Es war noch nie schön beim industriellen Töten. Dazu kommt, dass Tiere zerteilen, wie Kleidung nähen auch, keine Tätigkeit ist die ein Roboter schon kann. Man versucht also Profite über die Ausbeutung von Menschen zu realisieren. Das ist nicht gut und sollte durch die Anpassung des Arbeitsrechts behoben werden. Beim Fleisch bietet sich eine Auslagerung der Produktion ins Ausland nicht an.

Aber kann unsere gesamtes Verhalten im Konsens, reflektiert und langfristig überdenken: Jede Regelung sollte sich einfach am Konsum orientieren: Dinge die in Deutschland konsumiert werden sollten eine Gestehungsgeschichte haben hinter der wir als Gesamtgesellschaft auch stehen können. Das ist etwas, was man klar und unter allen Menschen verhandeln muss. Betroffene Aktivisten haben hier in der Vergangenheit ihre hehren Absichten oft einen Bärendienst erwiesen: Sie verlieren in ihrem – mir fällt nur das englisch Wort ein – Zeal die durchaus vorhandene Unterstützung der Gesamtbevölkerung.

Ähnlich wirkt hier die Kampagne gegen Billigfleisch. Wer Sushi isst braucht keine Bratwurst. Aber lecken essen wollen und sollen alle. Egal wie tief der Geldbeutel ist und welche Essenskultur gerade soziokulturell in den eigenen Kreisen dominant ist. Wenn Fleischkonsum als etwas schlimmes kommuniziert wird, das man höchsten via “Tafelspitz vom Irischen Kalb in Marinade mit Tonkabohne, frisches Wurzelbrot, an Feigensenf und Wildkräutersalat mit Johannisbeere” erleben darf, dann verliert man das Einsehen das eigentlich da ist. Wie gesagt: Auch dieses Land wird nicht von Unmenschen bewohnt.