The US is a large and diverse country. Sociologically and geographically. There are many maps as graphical representations available. They are worth comparing. Here we see the recent NY Times Covid map next to other data sets that could have an impact on the epidemic. Like income level:
Income 2011 vs Covid January 2021
Blue collar jobs yield lower incomes, and they can not be as easily socially distanced and white collar ones. But California, Oregon and Main break the hypoythesis of “poor counties have more covid”.
Republic vs Democrat presidential election 2020 vs Covid January 2021
Mask attitudes and acceptance of other social distancing patterns correlate with political leanings. California does not fit this narrative. Colorado vs Oklahoma could support it, but then the pattern of cases in New Mexico suggest the opposite.
population density vs Covid 19 cases January 2021
Clearly: if you people live closer together then this make virus spread easier. Actually: For the virus to spread you only seem to need a 7/11. People live socially everywhere. Yes, in NYC you see easily thousands of people each day, but it appears that you can’t catch Covid from that attractive person on the other side of the street that you noticed while going to work.
December Temperatures vs Covid January 2021
This is our first winter with Covid. Of course everybody hopes it will be the last one two. Both Fauci and Drosten already talked in the beginning of 2020 about it. They both strongly suggest that this would be a hard time. So one could surmise that cold is good for team-virus. It seems that it also can be too cold for Covid to spread. The northern plains have much less of a problem now that it is really cold up there than those states in tempered climate.
It snowed in Spain in the last days. It would be interesting to follow their cases in the next weeks. If they go down then that will be very interesting.
Never let a good crisis go to waste: While the world is upset about Qanon crazies roaming through congress for a couple of hours the Trump administration keeps working on what they do: Giving land grants to mining companies. I am sure both sides hide the bribes that flowed for this well. But bribery is pretty much the only explanation why the Trump administration would move on this deal.
Hard to say. Of course the first reason is, that I have no clue about what I am talking about. Secondly there is not that much data yet. Thirdly: When I think about it, I notice slight puckering around varies body openings. Such indications of rather basic emotions (that animals have had pretty much since they developed spines) is not specifically an indication for clear and reasonable thinking. Which is what we need. Right now.
Coronaviruses have a way to proof read the genomes they create. Their exoribonuclease seems to reduce mutation rates by around two orders of magnitude. Of course there are lots of strains by now anyway.
As with the original strain naming is not simple in the beginning. Back in the day it took a while until nSars-Cov-2 and Covid-19 respectively became the labels of virus and disease that it causes. Wuhan virus was prominent. There was that man that keeps talking about the “China Virus”. A term that kinda backfired, since that country is actually one of those that don’t have a problem right now. In the end the public ended up just calling it Corona.
Along those lines B.1.1.7 seems to be widely known as the ‘UK mutation’. The UK is also a country that is very diligently tracking entire genomes. Unlike with the Spanish Flu it seems that it is not only the ability to name something that gives the country the name of an event: If the current increase in cases is indeed related to the mutation in question, then it seems that it actually is currently only active in the UK. So we lucked out. Again. Almost a year ago a team, including Christian Drosten, established a test for the virus that kept spreading in 2020. That was blazingly fast. And having tests gives you data. When you have data you can know what you should do. Better at least as if you have no data. Back to names: The same mutation is also known as 20B/501Y.V1 or VOC 202012/01.
Speaking of data: The increase of the UK infection rate is horrifying. There is no dent in the increase for the last two weeks. Currently the numbers look like they are increasing linearly. If the suggested 0.4 – 0.7 increase of the R rate should indeed be true, then the linearity of the increase might yield to something way scarier: A log increase. A virus going viral. Imagine that. All during 2020 the world has avoided this. The UK will show if more stringent social distancing measures will indeed keep it that way. The UK is a couple of months ahead of the the rest of the world if it comes to this mutation. While vaccines are wonderful and will solve this crisis long term the question is how much impact this winter season will have. And there vaccines hopefully can reduce the death rates somewhat for the vulnerable parts of the population. Which is awesome. The problem will still be the health care system: If considerable sizes of the entire population get infected quickly, then the bandwidth of its services will be exceeded. Something that happens in the course of natural disasters. All the time. What would be new is that this will happen on a wide scale.
So, where are we now? London has a 7 day incidence rate of close to 1000 per 100K. To put this into context: Germany’s trigger limit for general counter measures is 50. A value that right now gets exceeded everywhere. One a country basis these numbers are currently at:
USA: 451
UK: 589
Germany: 129
Germany looks good here, right? Well. No: More than 1000 people died today. The US has about 4 times the inhabitants of Deutschland. If the US would have german mortality rates then more than 4000 people would die each day.
Right now, based on these numbers, the UK does not look that bad. The problem is the future. It always is, but don’t tell Mr. Tolle that.
That Hamlet quote (Something is rotten in the state of Denmark) makes you think you sound smart, when you are not. And here I don’t even mean those heaps of dead mink. The Staten Serum Institut published on January 2nd a document. Throwing its summary at Google translate will give us this summary:
*The observed development in the occurrence of cluster B.1.1.7 in Denmark, corresponds to a infection rate, which is 72% (95% CI: [37, 115]%) higher than the average of others virus variants circulating in Denmark.
* Based on the current situation where 2.3% of the virus variants in it routine whole genome sequencing belongs to cluster B.1.1.7, it is estimated that the variant will account for half of the circulating virus strains in Denmark of 40- 50 days if the above increased rate of infection persists.
*The current level of restrictions is not expected to be sufficient to obtain the contact number for cluster B.1.1.7 under 1. Therefore, this will grow exponentially notwithstanding that the total contact number (for all virus variants) may be below 1 until cluster B.1.1.7 takes over in about a month.
…
* It is estimated on the basis of English data that the contact number is approx. 1.5 times higher for the new virus variant compared to other virus variants.
* The reduction in infection rates and hospitalizations that can be achieved in the coming month will provide a lower starting point for the increased infection and increasing contact numbers, as we must expect.
Denmark is not special as the UK is. What is true for Denmark is true for the rest of the world. It is just a matter of timing. With the UK being ahead of the curve by weeks. As the wide CI (37 – 115%) indicates, these results are based on n in the lower dual digits:
(I guess Uge is danish for week)
Ultimately only actual infection trends will show if these fears hold true. As mentioned: UK numbers are of great concern in the next weeks. They show us what will happen. Then it will come down to timing: Spring will also dampen infections as it did 2020. The big question is, if B.1.1.7 will take a hold before spring or not. It will propagate. It will be all we will be dealing with until a more infectious mutation will emerge.
People think they know ‘Corona’. There were lockdowns, there were results. B.1.1.7 is different enough that we have to give up the idea that we can expect the same results. There are no longer ‘infection clusters’ like there used to be. Of B.1.1.7 there are right now. But we lack the tools to test them. I am not aware of specific B.1.1.7 tests. Which should be a major concern right now. If we would try to find the B.1.1.7 clusters and throw the kitchen sink at those them (not pleasant for the people / regions involved) then we might have a chance to drag out the reign of this variation into summer. When we have more time.
So, how fucked are? As always: We have no idea. We only can guess. Those that thought that having a new number on the calendar will make magically everything better will be disappointed: Turns out Covid-20 (not the right name, but by impact it might be appropriate) will keep our attention in month to come.
One could have never guessed that Brexit is the least of the Britisch problems in January 2021. “Nobody knows anything. Not before it happens”
Right now one can buy a Bitcoin for around 27,000 dollars. A number that will seem low very soon. How long? Unclear.
I do not fully understand how Bitcoin works. Neither do the people that trade it. Or those that promote it. Or – no surprise there – the journalists that write about it for a living. Probably not entirely true. But sadly it is not that those who have the best grasp on the subject matter are the ones that have the biggest audiences. A general problem. One that we all created: We give bad and flawed sources to much of our attention. We know what bad info looks like. We click and subscribe anyway.
But back to the Bitcoin Bubble: There is a finite amount of them. They get created by an ever increasing calculation effort. If Bitcoin is above a certain price that is not a problem: If mining them makes you money (actual money that you can use somewhere) then people will do it. All bitcoin transactions go into one unique ledger. This is a problem. One that is built into the design of the ‘currency’: If your beautiful new digital currency is limited to -let’s say- 10 transactions per seconds for the entire globe you have a problem. One that has been with Bitcoin since day one. People being people still promoted for a while that you will buy your Pizza with ฿. Many some poor souls did. They regret that today.
But we don’t buy food with gold either. So couldn’t Bitcoin be an awesome (new) way to store value? There is a problem with that way of thinking as well: Gold just sits there. That’s why humans like it. No batteries need replacement. It does not corrode. It is today what it was a 1000 years ago. Trading it means essentially moving it from one place to another. Today it often does not really mean that. But essentially Gold (if it then exists) can be used in that basic mode.
A Bitcoin trade does go into the central ledger. One that is only valid as long as there is mining of new coins. Which will become more expensive. As long the price keeps going up that works. There will be the point that mining new bitcoin will be more expensive than the price would justify. Which also means that there will be no further transactions. Currently people have around 400 billion dollars worth in Bitcoin. Since they want to use that money someday they need to find new people who ‘invest’ in Bitcoin.
One could probably calculate where that max price limit is. The Bitcoin curve will not look predictably simple. It will eventually end, and there will be no more trades. Until then it will have the shape of the edges of a saw while going up. How many of these saw teeth there will be I do not know. As I said I don’t know how Bitcoin works. At the current price you might make money depending on the tooth shape we are, and if there will be future ones.
But eventually it will come to a crashing halt. And then there will be nothing. Absolutely nothing. Maybe you have a screen shot of your holdings. If you print it you can hang it at your wall. But it will otherwise be worthless.
Today there are 20, yesterday there were 14. So, no, there is no news here. It is insane that China is not being used as an example of what works. Of course the regime there is stupid and evil. They can soon treat 12 year olds as criminals.
But Covid is not a problem for them in the amount it is for western countries. And still no efforts are been made to seriously look at how they do things and what could be applied to other countries.
Knowingly triggering Godwins law I like to point out that “Operation Paperclip” was a success for the US.
The WSJ writes that the UK annually exports £79 billion worth of financial services to the EU27.
Large numbers are hard to grasp. This means that each EU27 citizen buys 16 Euros worth of financial services each month.
What are these services? Do I have pay 16 Euros more for my groceries since the conglomerates that produce them pay London lawyers so much for some fancy tax evasion schemes? What are all those lawyers and accountants doing anyway?
The City of London (which is where most of these services get made) sells around 6 times more as finservs across the channel than the entire globe spends on toothpaste.
All the virus wants it to make more of itself. Obviously other regards don’t count. How far did it get so far? How much of the virus is there on the planet by now? 0.875 grams. Well, the math is my own so it could be wrong. I end up with that amount by calculating:
The 1000 gets us to Liters, and I assume 5 Liters of blood and 70 million infected people. The mass of a Virion is around 1 fg. 1000000000000000 of which are in one gram.
Brookfield Asset Management (stock symbol BAM) owns considerable office space. In DTLA alone they pretty much own half of skyline via their subsidary Brookfield Properties.
The WSJ featured an interesting graphic today:
Basically more than 70% of office space are empty. Having been since spring. Why should people return? At what cost? It seems that wheels are still turning. Regardless if office drones show up – or not. Maybe there might a future market for temporary meeting spaces and rooms. Much easier to use them if they are shared. It is not that a meeting room would have corporation specific benefits.
So it seems that owning lots of commercial real estate being used as office would be bad for business. Since Brookfield is publicly traded one could expect that its stock is not doing so great. Turns out that that is not really true:
Yes, BAM trades higher today than it did in January. When business was ‘normal’.
This is nuts.
It also is crazy that seemingly more than 70% of people don’t need to show up for work at the office, and the sky is not falling. Which really raises the question: Why did they show up in the past?
Because a cubicle was a fun place to be? Because the commute is so much fun? Allot of time AND money flows into the daily mass migration from ‘burbs to city centers and back. Seems it can be replaced by a network connection people had for Netflix anyway.
What else do we do that we no longer need to do? Things get nudged along week by week. Month by month. Year by year. Decade by decade. All the while it could have been radically changed.
This is the real benefit of emerging countries like China: They can ask themselves at each step in any process how it could be done best. Not having a precedent of a somewhat working system gives amazing liberties.
I think at least half of work efforts in the US are being wasted. They could be optimized away. Mostly in the middle of these structures. Where work interacts with reality (blue collar) things have been optimized all the time. You can measure the throughput of a chamber maid much easier than that of an Excell spreadsheet jockey in some cubicle home office.
