US death rate projections

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The IHME currently projects 208 thousand Covid deaths by November 1st. In the image here I added the 5 countries that still have higher per capita death rates. The position is eyeballed, the data comes from worldometer.

I think the estimate is way too low. By November 1st the death count might have trippled from today and approach 400.000.

Even going with these number the difference between the ‘Masks’ line and the others should make it clear that mandatory mask use is something that should be implemented. Right. Fucking. Now.

Na, da klicke ich dann mal besser schnell drauf:

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Google News. Bugs passieren. Lustig ist es dann aber schon wenn es ausgerechnet die FAZ ist, die scheinbar einen auf Clickbait zu machen scheint. Aber vielleicht bin ich einfach alt und sortiere das Frankfurter Blatt marketingmässig noch in der falschen Schublade ein.

Brillenetui oder iPhone auf dem Tisch? Das Bild möchte uns glauben machen Herr A aus K könne, trotz seiner 85 Lenze, die Zeitung noch brillenlos lesen.

antidrone drone

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Anduril is a company that makes high tech deterrents. The company got founded by Palmer Luckey, who was one of the co founders of Oculus Rift.

In Mike Judge’ much missed Silicon Valley he was the inspiration for the character Keenan Feldspar.

Of course Mr Judge can do whatever he wants with his life. I found the Silicon Valley ending to be un inspired. And actually absolutely un necessary. Many shows overstay their welcome. They squeeze out season after season until that horse it so dead it looks already like the pasture it once grazed on. Silicon Valley did not have that problem. The format is great, the subject matter was not the characters, those could have been replaced if wanted or needed. The format is the clear eyed satire of what is going on in NoCal. That deserves a show. And Mike Judge did a wonderful job with it. I would have not minded it if HBO would buy more seasons and make it something where you’d have a new show every week. Easy for me to say: I don’t have to work to create them. I just get to sit on the other side of the screen and got to enjoy it.

Up to this day: As crazy as it is, I derive some context for the Anduril dystopia based on the fictional depiction of its founder. Thats very 2020.

Note to the picture here: Forbes feels that they need to put a disclaimer on “This article is over 3 years old” on such ancient pieces. Funny. Kind of: Hey, look at latest greatest, don’t look at what mattered back them. Now. Now. Now!

Synchronisation

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German for dubbing. Since there are lots of people Germany had english movies dubbed. One got more or less used to the mismatch between sound and lips. A strange effect was when the actual voice of the actor felt wrong, since one had only heard the assigned voice actor. For some of them the rise to fame of the thespians they had spoken and therfor be assigned to became a windfall.

This wired piece is about deepfakes and how Covid might give it a boost. Or it just might be a PR piece for companies trying to sell their solutions. Or both.

Soon humans we look at will no longer be as unaltered as we assumed they were. Which of course was never really the case anyway. Make up, lighting, everything got used to alter peoples appearance. Marlene Dietrich very rarely if ever looked like we remember her.

In the near future actors might speak in foreign tongues, and naturally their faces move in the proper way. Don’t like how the movie tested? Change the plot after words. Test the new version and see if “he killed Todd” works better as “he didn’t kill Todd” did. Possibilities are endless.

Of course the people in the death star are scared and looking forward to that: No longer any actors to wrangle. But what if ‘tech’ (that dreaded 4 letter word in Hollywood) could generate an inflationary amount of charactors? Each version more appealing. There is right now a certain lifespan management for actors. Individual drug encounters and religious awakenings aside it is in the total sum almost predictable how career earnings develop in average. That all will change.

For the death star it will probably not matter anyway. In hindsight it was a real tragic move to bloat the operations with assets around live performance in order to have enough critical mass to go public.

Back then it looked very smart: Live performances are the ONE thing were “tech” would not turn everything on its head. As with most tanked prediction the problem was not to evaluate the pieces on the board in the wrong way. It was the illusion to think that one knows about all the pieces that the game has.

8 months with feedbin: still love it

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Since October 2019 I pay for feedbin. I think it is 5 dollars. I had to look it up, that is monthly. So, at $60 a year not super cheap. For me it is worth it. There is still a surprising rich amount of RSS feeds out there. News generators that don’t have them? Well they don’t get my attention then. Last time I checked it is a buyers market: There is ample supply for peoples attention in 2020. There are many content generators who switched to newsletters. Makes sense to push things into people email inboxes. Feedbin has a great feature: You get an email address that you can have newsletter sent to.

I have not experienced a single bug or outage. The system is fast and realiable. More than happy to pay $5 for it. It actually is better than google reader. Google made a couple of cardinal mistakes during the last two decades. Shutting down reader was one of them. They wanted to migrate people over to Wave. Google Wave. Look it up, it was a thing …

Feedbin is very much a thing. It makes my days better. Every single one of them. Which reminds me: I want to try to stop using the Internet one day a week.

Motorradfahrverbote am Wochenende

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Als ich das erste mal davon hörte dachte ich es ist ein Scherz. Ernst kann es auch wirklich keiner meinen: Das Motorradfahren am Wochenende zu verbieten. Der größte Unsinn überhaupt. Ich glaube es ist ein einfach nur Versuch von Aussen im Land Unfrieden zu sähen.

Diesen Gefallen tun dir Grünen der AfD und Putin ja hoffentlich nicht sich auf der falschen Seite des Argumentes aufzustellen.

changing PR messages till one sticks – for the moment being

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First here was the man, the giver of ventilators. That got old, in his final briefing he suggested shining a light into peoples bodies, or they just drink disinfectant. For a while things simmered along. Now, that the infection rate is climbing again the new message is supposed to be as simple as Get used to it, get over it. Under normal circumstances such an idea would be outlandish, and clearly made up. But with this administration it could even be true.

3 books by Jonathan Haidt

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I read 3 books by Jonathan Haidt: The Happiness Hypothesis (2006), The Righteous Mind (2012) and recently The Coddling of the American Mind (2018). I enjoyed all three. They are great books. Better than most that I read. I would recommend the first the most, the second then and his most recent work as the last. Not that his writing would have become worse. I find it to be awesome in each of them. It is just, that the topics of his books follow what is going in the world. In 2006 it was fine to focus on how it is, that circumstances are not horrible, yet people are not happy. In 2012 it was worth looking into how people became so partizan, and in 2018 it seemed that people freaked out quiet a bit. Which, in light of 2020, was rather prescient.

Haidt is a rare author that takes science and explains what goes on. And he does so in a way that does not cater to the usual left / right dichotomies. He makes an effort to look at the world, and tries to understand something about it. Whatever it might be. Then he does an outstanding job to condense it and explain it well, so that even people like me can benefit from it. With each of his books I was left with the feeling, that I understand life and society a little bit better once I had read them. Which is really awesome and much appreciated.

It is not his fault that between 2006 and 2018 the world fell into this info-cesspool and people in general rub their noses bloody on the Internet by means of their phones. He would deserved a better world. And there could have been one. If more people would have read his 2006 book it would have made a big impact. Likewise would we have had different candidates in 2016 if ‘The righteous Mind’ would have found a better and broader audience. They would have been better candidates too. I have nobody particular in mind, just that the election of 2016 only could happen in a certain ignorance that he already had elucidated a way out of.

new risers

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I am a big fan of Aatish Bhatia’s way to display Covid-19 infection numbers in a log to log diagram that shows existing versus new cases.

It allows very clearly to see trends. Sadly there are a couple of countries who see a recent increase in cases after they had managed to lower new infections significantly.

How far the situations of these countries could be compared, and if there should be a common cause is not clear. It is striking how similar the patterns are. Of course the US is an outlier. It always is. Exceptionalism, American.

Covid-19 and the Neanderthals

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I pay for the NY Times. Sometimes I wonder if that such a good idea. Specially with science topics most people look at the head line and then remember it if it happens to fit into their model of the world. Real science has in common with reality that it is complicated, messy, and not as simple as we like. So what Carl Zimmer was thinking when he headlined “DNA Linked to Covid-19 Was Inherited From Neanderthals, Study Finds” is beyond me. He writes about what Hugo Zeberg and Svante Pääbo posted on Friday. He fails to mention that people in sub saharan Africa do not have any Neanderthal DNA.