Thinking another day about UMPC. It’s doomed. Unless somebody comes up with a killer application that generates a blackberry like niche this will go the way of the Newton. Just faster, since there are less hardcore M$ fanboys compared to the number of Apple fanboys.
Category: M$
The cocoon called Origami contained only a UMPC. Microsoft tried some hyping. They have to learn allot before they are able to launch products like Apple: This one folded. During those three weeks between Scoble’s plug of some hollow flash teaser and the actual release at Cebit lots of people saw an Origami concept video at the digital-kitchen website. The ill fated hipster assemblage sat prominently for one year next to a similar piece about the “SPOT Watch”. It should be in the interest of the company in Redmond not to mention this device in the context of Origami. It is not only the wireless component that the digital dud from 2003 shares with the latest greatest: In both cases Microsoft tries to innovate. Actually the leap for the SPOT device seemed even further: Microsoft started it’s own content distribution network based on FM for it. Big deal, specially since it tanked.
Is the UMPC doomed? Is there really an uncanny valley between cellphone and laptop? Will the bones of the UMPC get bleached next to the one of the PDA in the unforgiving sun of tech history?
Microsoft, Intel, Samsung and a couple of mid sized electronic makers are behind the UMPC. 100 Million UMPC devices till 2008 is the number that they floated. A 50 billlion US market. That is nice. Would be nice. The Microsoft Origami team is made up of eleven people. Not including Mr. Scoble.
Microsoft tried to push the tablet PC. And it did not work as hoped. Outside of the corporate Cool Aid sprinklers it is hard to find a person using such a device. The UMPC is featuring the same operating system: Windows XP in it’s tablet Version.
That is great, since there is so much software for it. That is not so great since there is so much malware for it. Those 100 Million networked UMPC’s could make lots of evil guys in Russia happy. An army of mobile nodes in your bot net, what could you ask for more?
The bigger problem is, is that XP is an ok desktop operating system and interface. Not great, not terrible. The tablet edition I don’t know anything about. Now the poor thing has to serve in yet another iteration on the UMPC. Which is where there is a problem: Usability. In the marketing videos people interact magically with the thing: They barely look at the thing and it jumps into action. Does exactly what they want it do it. Which would be great for a desktop system, but it is critical for a mobile device: All these ‘wouldn’t it be great’ scenarios that these clips dream up only work along our busy lives if they can be used effortless. I never saw anybody use a XP install effortless. Not having a keyboard and using a touch screen with 800×480 does not make things easier. To say the least. Things need to move very very smooth in this field of dreamed up application. And that’s where the UMPC falls into the void. It does not deliver on the promises that it makes. The core technologies are interesting: A touch screen, 2 pounds, Wifi and bluetooth. That oughta work. Some of them even have cameras and microphones and smart cart readers.
It’s not the hardware that’s broken. It’s the idea that you want to deal with Windows XP while you are standing on an intersection. Yes, that is a scary thought. XP is not compatible with real life. Period.
It is true that there is a gap between Laptop and Cellphone / ipod. The form factor will make for a very sucessful and nice media player, if managing media is as easy as it can be. Don’t think that XP is particularly great at that. Media Center is made for that. Is it good? I have no idea.
Vista? It will run, so they say. They have to. Would be funny to launch this cat right away into a dead end. The minimal specs for vista are pretty far away from what these little guys have to offer. We will see. Maybe there will be a 7th edition for UMPCs.
The average UMPC might do rather well under Linux. Imagine Samsung hiring a decent designer (and one for the hardware while they are at it, please!!) and a couple of geeks that boil down a nice distro that auto updates etc, etc. Then they would be up to something. OK, Mr. Scoble would not hype them anymore, but apart from that that side of the road is only pretty: Media center features under an UI that is made for the device.
People have high standards these days: Something does interact less than google does with search for instance and they walk away. UMPCs are priced between 500-1000. You expect it to be useful for something if you spend that kind of money on it. The hardware is certainly capable. The problem is to make it all work smooth enough to make it worth while. Running XP you can use the biggest software library there is. Just that you have limited resolution and battery life compared to a laptop at home. And on the road you need to figure out how to get EVDO or similar to work. And you need to cary it around. I used to develop software for the Newton. The thing was interesting, but in the end just way to heavy.
So, final word: two thumbs down
Not gonna work. Come back here in a year and see if I was wrong.
Try that with the rest of my blog 😉
If you buy a brand new windows machine then there are ten steps to keep it safe. Well, as brand new as those tips appear to be, even if you do so, you can get your Windows PC infected simply by visiting a website.
one of the many articles disscussing the matter
If you are so unlucky and use a Windows PC then you could have been infected by clicking on that lick. Of course the link above is legit. But do you trust me? How many links do you click on?
I have written this again and again: I use no firewall, I use no virus protection, I am in the internet 16 hours a day and leave my computer on 24/7. I jump on every wifi that I can find if I need to. I visit all sorts of websites. Really everything. My cookie list reads really disgusting, that’s for sure. Various reasons, not really what you think. Point being that I behave extremely ‘dangerous’ and never had a single problem. No spyware, no virus, nothing. My computer runs what I want. No a single bit more. Always have been.
I am not particularly lucky nor smart. It’s just that I don’t run Windows.
It’s one of these things that make you shake your head if you look at it in clear daylight: You can even buy ‘virus protection software’ for OS X. People are so used to think that Computers need some extra protection that they miss the point that the whole switch will get you out of the mess that grew around Microsoft Windows.
The other day somebody told me that it was funny to watch me becoming such a Mac zealot. I think it’s more a passion for the alternative, that is less fucked up. Apple sucks in many ways: I am writing this, with a Microsoft mouse attached to my PowerBook6,7 since the trackpad goes stale till the next reboot. I have open bugs with their ‘pro’ division, and they didn’t come up with a solution. At all. But getting a new computer and having to go through ten steps to make it somewhat secure? Clearly I have an easier life. Imagine you buy a car and then have to go and get brakes and seat belts and a lock for it from somewhere else.
I am not sure if Adobe is that important.
But the underlying question that Apple is indeed challenging Microsoft’s operating system monopoly is interesting. And not news to me.
What I had not realised is the vertical integration depth of all those Office applications and macros arouund it. This will most likely not go away. Ever. Vista will have a chance if all those tiny little visual basic thingies continue to work.
Those IT monsters will not go away. They rather turn the internet off of safety and glue the CDROM drives shut before they try to migrate those tangled webs of IT gopher tape to /anything/ that is different.
Yes, I know they call it Vista now. It’s just fun to mess with branding campaigns by ignoring them.
No more reboots sounds like a great concept.
No, I mean that. Especially if it comes from a company that used to require a reboot for a change of the IP address. I am _that_ old: Windows 95 was my last -and actually only- Windows machine. Side by side with an SGI O2. I cloned that machine yesterday: It’s a funny feeling to suddenly see yor desktop again after five years.
Back to ‘no more reboots’: I liked the concept, until I read “… Restart Manager will work with Microsoft Update, Windows Update, Microsoft Windows Server Update Services, Microsoft Software Installer, and Microsoft Systems Management Server … ”
Reading monster word heaps like this I am so glad that I don’t need to undertstand what it means. I spend 80% of my waking times with my computer during those weeks away from the my family. And I am so god damn glad that I don’t have to deal with any of this junk. The names alone make me cringe. I would hate my job if I would need to deal with stuff like that.
In other news Microsoft released SNARF today.
Bill should hire The Word Company.
The xbox crashing meme has reached slashdot.
Sony is huge. Their Music division probably messed up on a scale that will be stellar for times to come. But their Playstation 3 dept. does rather well: For the XBox 360 this week is really really important. People listen to what people have to say. If the bad news continues to stick with the XBox 360 then this could be tricky for those brave people in Redmond that took on the gaming market. All the pre order sales have been done by hard core gamers. I don’t numbers on this, but my guess is that you really start making money with games (and therefor the consoles) once you reach the broader range of the not so hard core gamers. And for those people it matters if they spend 400 now or 400 later. These people might just wait for the PS3. If they do then Micosoft just lost a big part of the head start bonus. Looking at those ‘internets’ right now it appears as if Sony does an excellent job in putting bad word of mouth around the 360.
Just don’t think that the Music division could benefit from Sony’s PS3 underground marketing skills. They will simply never find the person who might in charge for this. That has nothing to do with the cladestine nature of this. It’s just that Sony is as broken as most big companies are.
And winFS will come from Apple after all.
At least Longhorn is on track. Timewise. Just that WinFS will not make it. Poor Microsoft: They announce a book deal, and nobody cares. If Google or Apple do anything the world is jumping up and down in excitement.
Microfost only gets the attention if Balmer jumps up and down.
don’t make you happy. At least not if you are Uncle Fester.
vista , Billy …
The article does not say what version and which circumstances.
But yes: if you would find an unopened PC box from 2001 somewhere, open it and connect it to the internet then it would melt.