Hard to say. Of course the first reason is, that I have no clue about what I am talking about. Secondly there is not that much data yet. Thirdly: When I think about it, I notice slight puckering around varies body openings. Such indications of rather basic emotions (that animals have had pretty much since they developed spines) is not specifically an indication for clear and reasonable thinking. Which is what we need. Right now.
Coronaviruses have a way to proof read the genomes they create. Their exoribonuclease seems to reduce mutation rates by around two orders of magnitude. Of course there are lots of strains by now anyway.
As with the original strain naming is not simple in the beginning. Back in the day it took a while until nSars-Cov-2 and Covid-19 respectively became the labels of virus and disease that it causes. Wuhan virus was prominent. There was that man that keeps talking about the “China Virus”. A term that kinda backfired, since that country is actually one of those that don’t have a problem right now. In the end the public ended up just calling it Corona.
Along those lines B.1.1.7 seems to be widely known as the ‘UK mutation’. The UK is also a country that is very diligently tracking entire genomes. Unlike with the Spanish Flu it seems that it is not only the ability to name something that gives the country the name of an event: If the current increase in cases is indeed related to the mutation in question, then it seems that it actually is currently only active in the UK. So we lucked out. Again. Almost a year ago a team, including Christian Drosten, established a test for the virus that kept spreading in 2020. That was blazingly fast. And having tests gives you data. When you have data you can know what you should do. Better at least as if you have no data. Back to names: The same mutation is also known as 20B/501Y.V1 or VOC 202012/01.
Speaking of data: The increase of the UK infection rate is horrifying. There is no dent in the increase for the last two weeks. Currently the numbers look like they are increasing linearly. If the suggested 0.4 – 0.7 increase of the R rate should indeed be true, then the linearity of the increase might yield to something way scarier: A log increase. A virus going viral. Imagine that. All during 2020 the world has avoided this. The UK will show if more stringent social distancing measures will indeed keep it that way. The UK is a couple of months ahead of the the rest of the world if it comes to this mutation. While vaccines are wonderful and will solve this crisis long term the question is how much impact this winter season will have. And there vaccines hopefully can reduce the death rates somewhat for the vulnerable parts of the population. Which is awesome. The problem will still be the health care system: If considerable sizes of the entire population get infected quickly, then the bandwidth of its services will be exceeded. Something that happens in the course of natural disasters. All the time. What would be new is that this will happen on a wide scale.
So, where are we now? London has a 7 day incidence rate of close to 1000 per 100K. To put this into context: Germany’s trigger limit for general counter measures is 50. A value that right now gets exceeded everywhere. One a country basis these numbers are currently at:
- USA: 451
- UK: 589
- Germany: 129
Germany looks good here, right? Well. No: More than 1000 people died today. The US has about 4 times the inhabitants of Deutschland. If the US would have german mortality rates then more than 4000 people would die each day.
Right now, based on these numbers, the UK does not look that bad. The problem is the future. It always is, but don’t tell Mr. Tolle that.
That Hamlet quote (Something is rotten in the state of Denmark) makes you think you sound smart, when you are not. And here I don’t even mean those heaps of dead mink. The Staten Serum Institut published on January 2nd a document. Throwing its summary at Google translate will give us this summary:
*The observed development in the occurrence of cluster B.1.1.7 in Denmark, corresponds to a infection rate, which is 72% (95% CI: [37, 115]%) higher than the average of others virus variants circulating in Denmark.
* Based on the current situation where 2.3% of the virus variants in it
routine whole genome sequencing belongs to cluster B.1.1.7, it is estimated that the variant will account for half of the circulating virus strains in Denmark of 40- 50 days if the above increased rate of infection persists.
*The current level of restrictions is not expected to be sufficient to obtain the contact number for cluster B.1.1.7 under 1. Therefore, this will grow exponentially notwithstanding that the total contact number (for all virus variants) may be below 1 until cluster B.1.1.7 takes over in about a month.
…
* It is estimated on the basis of English data that the contact number is approx. 1.5 times higher for the new virus variant compared to other virus variants.
* The reduction in infection rates and hospitalizations that can be achieved in the coming month will provide a lower starting point for the increased infection and increasing contact numbers, as we must expect.
Denmark is not special as the UK is. What is true for Denmark is true for the rest of the world. It is just a matter of timing. With the UK being ahead of the curve by weeks. As the wide CI (37 – 115%) indicates, these results are based on n in the lower dual digits:
(I guess Uge is danish for week)
Ultimately only actual infection trends will show if these fears hold true. As mentioned: UK numbers are of great concern in the next weeks. They show us what will happen. Then it will come down to timing: Spring will also dampen infections as it did 2020. The big question is, if B.1.1.7 will take a hold before spring or not. It will propagate. It will be all we will be dealing with until a more infectious mutation will emerge.
People think they know ‘Corona’. There were lockdowns, there were results. B.1.1.7 is different enough that we have to give up the idea that we can expect the same results. There are no longer ‘infection clusters’ like there used to be. Of B.1.1.7 there are right now. But we lack the tools to test them. I am not aware of specific B.1.1.7 tests. Which should be a major concern right now. If we would try to find the B.1.1.7 clusters and throw the kitchen sink at those them (not pleasant for the people / regions involved) then we might have a chance to drag out the reign of this variation into summer. When we have more time.
So, how fucked are? As always: We have no idea. We only can guess. Those that thought that having a new number on the calendar will make magically everything better will be disappointed: Turns out Covid-20 (not the right name, but by impact it might be appropriate) will keep our attention in month to come.
One could have never guessed that Brexit is the least of the Britisch problems in January 2021. “Nobody knows anything. Not before it happens”