It is very interesting to me to look at where I was really wrong. I should say: where I was wrong and can remember. or where I have evidence for it. Like everybody else I constantly edit my own history so that I look good in it. All the blunders (some cringes aside, and but that is yet another topic) and dead ends simply don’t show in the history I create of my past.
Anyway: Steve had pancreatic cancer. He would not survive, that much I was certain. He wasn’t. Good for him. I never worked directly for Apple. But close enough in a non consumer capacity that I could observe his influence first hand. AAPL of the early 2000s was a company that had one final and guiding beacon in all decisions and – most importantly – on all levels: What would Steve do. He was known to be able to care for everything. Stacking some boxes on some shelf: As improbable as it is, it could be that the door would open, and he would notice in a heartbeat that the way you did that was not the best possible way. Should that be the case you would be gone. It is probably corpo-lore but the tale goes that an unsuspecting employee was randomly joined by him for an elevator ride, to be confronted with the question: “What have you done today for Apple?” The story goes that the answer was not up to Steves liking and the passenger was no longer employed by Apple Inc when the door opened and Steve went his ways.
So, when I was thinking about Apple without Steve I thought it would not go well. Yes, there hasn’t been another iMac, iPod or iPhone, but the company is bigger and wealthier than it ever was. They started – for crying out loud – to make their own chips and will put them in everything they make. Chips are expensive. This is an astute move on Apples part. One that requires foresight and ample well directed resources. Apple is smart that it works with its strength. Tim Cook understands what he is good at. And what he is not. He never tried to show the world that he also can invent like Steve. A mistake most people would do, and that would easily ruined the company. Johny Ive kind of inherited the ‘spiritual leader’ function of Jobs. But he – luckily – never ran with it. If he ever tried to stage a coup to grab the helm of Apple to ‘to bring it back to greatness’ then he failed so quietly that nothing got to the outside. Nobody can hear you scream in Cupertino.
So what is the cause of my mistake? Today I think it was the fact that I looked at all the pieces on the board, but did not take into account that the parts that I see are only part of the playing field. Tim Cook being good at his job, and his job being not of the nature of that of the previous CEO was not something I could take into account. I also underestimated how much the Apple-Way of the 2000s – certainly epitomized by the Jobs-halo – would be viable without him being around in the flesh. And a big, well run, corporation has some life in it. Specially when it is in a field that is still booming. Yes, Apple missed the cloud. The only real hit they have on their hands are head phones.
Mid 2020 AAPL is at 360, 2011 it was at 50. So, yes, I was wrong. Since I thought 50 was way to high since a second jobsless Apple would be the same disaster than the first one. But Tim Cook is no John Sculley.